The “supply and demand” model usually dictates that when supply is up, prices go down.
That was not the case in the single-family housing market in Northeast Florida in 2024.
The median sales price in 2024 rose to $400,000, an increase of 3.9% over the December 2023 price of $385,000, according to data provided by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors.
The price increase came about when new listings were up 32.7% in December 2024 with 2,179 compared with 1,642 in December 2023. NEFAR reports single-family home sales in Duval, Baker, Clay, Nassau, Putnam and St. Johns counties.
The active inventory of homes was 6,883, a 66.7% increase compared with 4,128 in 2023.
The months supply of inventory of 3.9 was up 49% compared with 2.6 in 2023. The months supply for 2024 peaked at 5 months in November.
The rest of the state and country have discovered Jacksonville, said 2024 NEFAR President Rory Dubin.
“There’s still a demand for property in Florida, because relative to the rest of the country and even the rest of the state, we’re still more affordable, even though we are much higher than we were relative to our own market,” Dubin said.
“You can still buy a house in Jacksonville for $400,000 or $500,000 that would easily cost you over a million in Miami or Orlando. So it’s that relative affordability that has helped keep pricing where it’s at.”
St. Johns County continues to be the most expensive county driven by the nearly weekly multimillion-dollar home sales in Ponte Vedra Beach.
Its median home sale price ended the year at $547,350. However, that was 1.8% less than the $557,450 median price at the beginning of 2024.
The median price in St. Johns reached a high of $584,900 in April. St. Johns was the only county in the market to see a median sales price drop.
A total of 20,969 homes were sold in Northeast Florida last year, down 282 from the 21,251 single-family home sales of 2023.
The Home Affordability Index finished the year at a score of 65, a 3% drop from 67 in December 2023. Over the year, the index averaged 66.5, down from 68.5 in 2023.
NEFAR defines Home Affordability Index as whether a typical family earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a typical home, based on current interest rates, median income, and median home prices. A higher number means greater affordability.
This index measures affordability factors for all homebuyers making a 20% downpayment.
An index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income family has the exact amount of income needed to purchase a median-priced existing home.
According to Dubin, who completes his one-year term as the organization’s president Jan. 24, NEFAR’s major accomplishments during 2024 were:
• Growing membership to more than 12,000 during a time of higher interest rates and price increases.
• NEFAR participation in the Cathedral District Project in Downtown to help employed people find affordable housing.
• NEFAR’s Global Business Council had trade missions to India and Canada to explain how real estate works in the United States and why the U.S. is a favorable market. A trip to Panama is planned for March of this year.
Dubin said he expects the 2025 administration in Washington to make reducing home loan interest rates a priority.
“President Trump has already gone on record saying he thinks interest rates are too high and he’s going to look for ways to bring down national interest rates, hopefully not artificially, by doing things to stimulate housing industry and figure out a way to make the cost of borrowing money less expensive for housing. That will affect the interest rates.”
If money becomes easier to borrow, Dubin thinks investors will return to the housing market. But it won’t be a quick fix.
“Monetary policy is a big ship to turn,” he said.
“I think somewhere by the end of the first quarter of this year, we might start seeing those effects of a different administration, different focus, and I think that’s what investors are counting on as well.”