A cool finish gives way to a hopeful outlook in 2025

North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project shows optimism about the economy in the new year after stagnant conditions at the end of 2024.


  • By Mark Basch
  • | 12:00 a.m. January 2, 2025
  • | 4 Free Articles Remaining!
Silhouette of workers at a construction site building 2025 against a sunrise cityscape background by Generative AI
Silhouette of workers at a construction site building 2025 against a sunrise cityscape background by Generative AI
Gelpi - stock.adobe.com
  • Business
  • Share

Jacksonville’s economy was cooling off at the end of 2024, according to the latest available data.

But one survey of Northeast Florida businesses indicated optimism that conditions will rebound in 2025.

The unemployment rate for the Jacksonville metropolitan area of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties stood at 3.6% in November, with the job growth rate at 1.5% for the region.

That’s higher than jobless rates that were below 3% in the first half of 2023, while job growth has slowed from its 3.9% rate at the beginning of 2023.

However, a monthly survey of Jacksonville area manufacturing firms by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project shows optimism about the economy in the new year after stagnant conditions at the end of 2024.

Albert Loh

“This optimism suggests confidence in the region’s economic stability and an expectation of steady or increasing demand in 2025,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his report on the November survey that showed that hopeful outlook.

“Such a strong outlook can spur investments in capacity, hiring, and infrastructure, contributing to the overall vitality of the Jacksonville economy. However, as reflected in respondents’ comments, the tempered nature of this optimism suggests that businesses remain cautious, balancing optimistic forecasts with awareness of potential risks,” he said.

The manufacturers were hoping for a strong holiday season to jump-start the economy.

“Many manufacturers anticipate growth into 2025, partly due to expectations of easing interest rates, which could support consumer spending and investment,” Loh said.

“However, challenges such as labor shortages, tariff uncertainties, and potential port disruptions temper confidence, underscoring that while the overall outlook is positive, external risks remain a concern,” he said.

The manufacturing sector was one of the weaker industries in November’s labor market report by the Florida Department of Commerce. Manufacturing employment was down by 300 jobs since November 2023, a 0.8% decline.

However, construction was an area of strength, growing by 2,500 jobs, or 4.8%.

The housing market was experiencing a seasonal slowdown in November, according to the latest report by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors.

NEFAR President Rory Dubin said in a news release the market is typically stronger in the first quarter.

“Interest rates remain volatile with unknown adjustments as we head into 2025. Investors, a major factor in our market, are hopeful for economic policy and rates with a new administration taking office in January,” he said.



Expert Insights 2025

What 26 Northeast Florida leaders are saying about the issues and challenges in the year ahead. 

Jan: 2: Daniel Cronrath, Debbie Buckland, Aundra Wallace, Michael Corrigan, Lakita Spann and Nichole Mobley. Story here

Jan. 3: Nick Allard, Christian Oldenburg, Eric Heninger, Dennis Whittle and William Bishop. 

Jan: 6: Dan Croft, Sharon Y. Cobb, Jenny Urcan, Bryan Moll and Irvin PeDro Cohen.

Jan .7: Patrick L. Green, Bill Sorenson, Dawn Gilman, Rebecca Gonzalez and Harrison Conyers. 

Jan. 8: Suzanne Pickett, Jim Stallings, Dawn Lockhart, Eric Green and Albert Loh



 

Sponsored Content

×

Special Offer: $5 for 2 Months!

Your free article limit has been reached this month.
Subscribe now for unlimited digital access to our award-winning business news.