A monthly survey of Jacksonville area manufacturing companies by the University of North Florida found a big dip in confidence about conditions in the months ahead.
Meanwhile, a quarterly survey of global businesses by Jacksonville-based Dun & Bradstreet also found a decline in optimism.
A Purchasing Managers Index’ derived from the survey by UNF’s Local Economic Indicators Project registered 49 in March, indicating a contraction in the local economy.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction while a figure above 50 signals expansion.
The survey’s Business Activity Outlook dropped to 44 in March.
“Since a reading below 50 means more companies expect conditions to worsen rather than improve, this suggests a notable decline in optimism across the local manufacturing sector,” UNF economist Albert Loh said in his monthly report on the survey.
“The index reflects growing uncertainty among businesses facing geopolitical tensions, tariff-related disruptions, and weak demand signals,” he said.
The pessimism from manufacturers in the Jacksonville area has implications for the broader economy, Loh said.
“When manufacturers anticipate weaker business conditions ahead, they often scale back operations to preserve resources, which can ripple into local job markets and supplier networks,” he said.
The survey’s Employment Index stood at 47 in March, indicating manufacturers are pulling back their hiring activity.
That’s confirmed by Florida Department of Commerce data showing manufacturing jobs fell by 0.8% from March 2024 through March 2025, one of few industry sectors in Northeast Florida to have a net decline in employment.
The UNF survey also recorded declines in new orders, output and backlogs of work, aligning with national trends, Loh said.
“While Input Prices and Supplier Delivery Times rose, these gains are seen more as symptoms of inflationary pressure and tariff-related disruptions than as signs of economic strength,” he said.
Dun & Bradstreet’s quarterly Global Business Optimism Insights report revealed a 1.3% decline in optimism in the first quarter.
The business data firm derives its index from a survey of about 10,000 businesses in 17 sectors around the world.
“In the face of macroeconomic uncertainty, rising capital costs, and a weakening growth forecast, businesses remain apprehensive about the global economic landscape and cautious about investment,” Neeraj Sahai, president of Dun & Bradstreet International, said in a news release.
“The reshaping of trade relationships and tariff uncertainty contributed to over 90% of the economies surveyed reporting a decline in their financial confidence index, in both emerging and advanced economies. Cost expectations remain elevated, especially in the economies most exposed to tariff hikes,” he said.
Loh said the outlook among Jacksonville manufacturers could push the sector closer to a recession.
“Monitoring these indicators in the coming months will be critical in determining whether this is a temporary slowdown or the beginning of a more prolonged downturn,” he said.