The first quarter of 2025 saw the lowest number of single-family homebuilding permits issued since 2017, according to data released April 8 by the Northeast Florida Builders Association.
From January to March, 2,272 permits were issued in Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties.
That’s down 31% from the first quarter in 2024 when 3,279 were issued.
In 2017, 2,230 were issued.
In March, 687 permits were issued, comprising St. Johns County, 353; Duval, 222; Clay, 64; and Nassau, 48.
Year-to-date, Clay has 158 permits; Duval, 1,025; Nassau, 152; and St. Johns, 937.
Uncertainty in the building market has homebuilders hedging their bets, said Jessie Spradley, NEFBA executive officer.
President Trump has threatened tariffs on dozens of countries.
“If the tariffs hold the prices are going to increase,” he said.
For example, 40% of the lumber used by U.S. builders is purchased from Canada, he said. Increased costs because of increased tariffs will be passed along to builders and eventually to homebuyers.
Spradley passed along tariff statistics from the National Association of Homebuilders:
• It is estimated that tariffs will add $9,200 per new home
• Approximately 7.3% of all goods used in new construction originated from a foreign nation in 2024.
• The tariffs are not only expected to raise the cost of building materials – which are up 34% since December 2020, far higher than the rate of inflation – but also wreak havoc on the building material supply chain. In turn, this will put even more upward price pressure on building materials.
Home prices are already too high for many homebuyers, Spradley said. An uncertain market may see potential buyers opting out of buying.
With the economy in flux, potential buyers are taking a wait-and-see attitude making sure that they are still employed, what interest rates will do and how high prices will rise.
“I think there’s hesitancy amongst buyers right now. Obviously, this is a huge expense for you. The largest item that most people ever buy is their home. If you aren’t certain about where the stock market’s going, you are going to hold off on that,” Spradley said.
There is also the challenge of finding places to build.
However, the reduced number of permits eases the lot shortage somewhat.
Because the market is experiencing a shortage of construction workers, the reduced workload probably will not cause widespread layoffs, he predicted.
First-quarter 2025 is 1,007 permits behind 2024’s pace. Last year, a total of 12,551 permits were issued. By comparison, in 2017 the year ended with 8,870 permits issued.
“What makes me nervous is, are the permit numbers going to go lower? Is this where we plateau at or does the number go lower?” Spradley said.