Breakfast isn’t the biggest driver of restaurant traffic, but it is one of its largest growth opportunities and the most profitable, says a University of North Florida finance professor.
That’s why he considers Maple Street Biscuit Co. founder Scott Moore’s venture into a second breakfast restaurant concept a reasonable one.
“According to the industry information giant, The NPD Group, breakfast represents only 20% of overall traffic share in the industry, but it has accounted for over half of the entire industry’s growth over the last 10-12 years,” said Eric Heninger, UNF adjunct professor in accounting and finance at the Coggin College of Business.
“And breakfast is considered to be the most profitable of all food segments.”
The NPD Group is part of Chicago-based Circana, a global adviser about consumer market research. After their merger, Information Resources Inc. and The NPD Group rebranded in 2023 as Circana. Moore is launching the Calico Cactus breakfast taco brand this month in St. Augustine with expectations of opening three locations and then franchising in the Eastern U.S. to reach 50 locations in four years.
He bases that on having created and expanded Maple Street to 33 locations among seven states in seven years before selling it to Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. in 2019 for $36 million.
Moore remained with Maple Street and concluded his noncompete in November 2023, then researched the market to launch in the niche of soft tacos for breakfast and lunch.
The breakfast-lunch concept focuses on capturing customers generally from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. Moore is focusing on sites that capture business from locals, college students, tourists and others to generate traffic every day rather than being heavy on weekends.
He also based Maple Street on biscuits as its main menu item in the breakfast-lunch hours. While biscuits came with most breakfast menus at traditional restaurants and also at fast-food units, they weren’t the primary focus.
“Scott Moore perfectly positioned Maple Street to ride that wave. He also instilled innovation and strong customer analytics, so when Scott says he’s done his research, I would tend to believe him,” Heninger said.
“The breakfast taco space is not a wildly unique concept. Essentially, it’s a breakfast sandwich. However, the breakfast sandwich is the top food choice in the breakfast quick service restaurant” category, he said.
Also, ”the 7-3 daily hours – with some lunch – suggests he is positioning the new concept to be the go-to offering throughout the workday for office districts, employment nodes, colleges and universities that maintain secondary campuses,” he said.
Consumer behavior is an important factor.
“People are more habitual with their morning routines, including breakfast. The limited lunch offering might even attract the same customer twice in a day,” Heninger said.
“I like the approach because his store will be serving food in these districts at the exact time when the population wants to eat. That’s how a restaurant becomes a go-to.”
The Calico Cactus menu features six breakfast tacos and five lunch tacos, with a taco of the week. The soft flour tortillas, sauces and dips will be made in the restaurant.
There also will be salads, bowls and sides, as well as corn tortillas, and vegetarian and gluten-friendly options.
Moore will offer a barista-staffed coffee bar with lattes, espresso and mimosas while also maintaining a self-serve coffee service where customers can grab a cup and fill up.
He offers two suggestions.
“As millennials and Gen Z make up more of the workforce, I would keep in mind two things. One, coffee – do you invest in gourmet and espresso equipment or just stay with a pot of regular, decaf and a stack of cups? Two, vegan options, it’s hard to be a go-to for the younger generations without real options here.”