Jacksonville’s economy appears to be moving in the right direction heading into 2016.
The area’s unemployment rate has dropped below 5 percent for the first time in seven years, and other economic indicators are also pointing up.
The University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project‘s index of leading indicators for Northeast Florida has risen in 12 of the last 15 months, and is rising “pretty substantially,” said UNF economist Paul Mason.
Mason said the most recent data shows that new claims for unemployment insurance are down, stocks of local companies are up and consumer expectations are also rising.
“The leading indicators suggest some positive things,” Mason said.
Inflation, as measured by LEIP’s consumer price index for the Jacksonville area, is under control, with the index actually dropping in four of the last five months. That can be a negative indicator, as it suggests businesses aren’t seeing enough demand to raise prices. But that could change in 2016 as the economy improves.
The overall economic outlook is good enough that the Federal Reserve Board this month raised short-term interest rates for the first time since 2006, but most analysts don’t think that will have a significant impact on growth.
“My outlook is positive. My only caveat is international uncertainty, including terrorism,” Mason said.
The economy’s recovery from the 2007-2009 recession has been unusually slow, so Mason is hoping that international issues won’t derail growth in the U.S. in 2016.
“We need a return to normalcy,” he said.